Anasayfa / Special File / TRADE TARGET WITH IRAN: 30 BILLION DOLLARS

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TRADE TARGET WITH IRAN: 30 BILLION DOLLARS

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Sanctions against Iran that has 80 million population and rich natural resources are being incrementally lifted. Turkey is one of the most forefront countries that will benefit the most from this development. The trade between two countries is expected to reach around 30 billion dollars. According to the agreement signed between parties after the discussions that ended in 14 July 2015 between Iran and P5+1 countries that includes 5 permanent members of the United Nation’s Security Council (USA, Russia, UK, France, China) and Germany, the sanctions against Iran will be lifted incrementally. Following the decision agreed on Iran’s nuclear program, US government lifted the sanctions for Iran’s nuclear activities. However sanctions not related to nuclear activities are still intact. One of the most important one is the Presidency Mandate of 1979 signed by President Jimmy Carter that required the freezing of Iranian assets. Second mandate is signed by President Clinton includes sanctions about Iran’s petroleum products. This mandate was extended for another year by President Obama one month ago. According to a report of International Investment Bank Merill Lynch, economic growth in Iran might increase to 8% following the lifting of sanctions. The same report predicts that if oil export of the country that comes second after Saudia Arabia in case of purchase power returns back to a level post-sanctions, the demand in the country will rapidly increase. Prior to sanctions, Iran’s oil production per day was around 3.7 million barrels a day. Production increased as much as 2.8 million barrels per day in 2015. The production is not expected to increase to prior sanction levels immediately since they did not make investments to oil fields since many years due to budget and technologic inadequacy. It is predicted for Iran to increase crude oil production to 3 million barrels until the end of the year and to 3.4 million barrels per day in 2017. THE MOST PREPARED COUNTRY IS TURKEY Iran has the third largest oil reserves in the world. It has a population of 800 million and GDP of 400 billion dollars. Now thanks to the lifting of sanctions that was applied since 1979 for various reasons, Iran will be able to integrate in the international economic system and continue its presence as an important power in the world economy. One of the countries that will benefit the most from the lifting of sanctions in Iran is Turkey. Apart from the lifting, another great role in this benefit will be sourced from preferential trade agreement between two countries. Discussions taking almost 10 years ended with an agreement signed in January 2014 and was put into effect in 1 January 2015. The first concessional trade agreement of Turkey apart from Free Trade Agreements, the Preferential Trade Agreement requires around 30% discount in export of 140 automotive, cosmetics, machinery and chemistry related products. The list now includes around 300 products with newly additions this year. Leaders of the two countries whom attended the Turkey & Iran Business Forum in February, announced their consensus on the preferential trade agreement to be used efficiently and stated their vision of having a free trade agreement and remove all customs barriers in the future. FOREIGN TRADE DECREASED TO 10 BILLION DOLLARS Iran was a very important trade partner for Turkey in the past as well. The foreign trade volume that was around 10 billion dollars in 2010 was increased to 21.8 billion dollars in 2012.Following the sanctions, this volume decreased to 14.6 billion dollars in 2013, 13.7 billion dollars in 2014 and 9.7 billion dollars in 2015. For the first two months in 2016 this volume was recorded as 260 and 300 million dollars respectively. Despite this downward trend, Turkey ranked 6th in Iranian import and 3rd in its export. A growing market with strategic location and high developing potential for energy and transportation networks Iran imports iron and steel, textile fiber, plastics, furniture and automotive spare parts from Turkey while exporting crude oil and natural gas. With the lifting of the sanctions and more effective impact of the preferential trade agreement, the trade volume between two parties is aimed to reach 30 billion dollars. A LARGE INVESTMENT GAP IN THE COUNTRY Lifting of sanctions against Iran will include the country into international trade network and enable the investments that were long missed by the country. The release of 30 billion held in international banks in time will support these investments. It is expected for Turkey that comes second after China in international contracting business, to receive an important role for the renovation and construction of industry and transportation establishments along with mass housing building projects that will draw a new look for the cities. Due to the sanctions, Iran has become a closed and mysterious location. The possibility of Iran becoming a hot destination for birliktourism is quite high however there aren’t enough touristic establishments or facilities to meet this level of demand. For that reason the country will be very available for tourism investments of any kind. Increased income will result in prosperity and Iranians are expected to visit world destinations more often. Turkey has become an important destination for Iranians for a while. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism data, the number of Iranian tourists that visited Turkey in 2012 was 1 million 186 thousand, it increased to 1 million 196 thousand in 2013 and 1 million 590 thousand in 2014. The total number of Iranian tourists whom visited Turkey was 1 million 700 thousand in 2015. Last year as the second largest group of tourists in Turkey were Iranians with 5,5 per cent share. Tourism experts expects the trend to continue this year as well. FIRST TURKEY TRADE CENTER WILL BE ESTABLISHED IN TAHRAN On the other hand, Turkey Trade Centers that will be established in order to increase Turkey’s export potential will be put into use in Tahran and Dubai for the first time. The support provided by the Ministry of Economy will pave the way to enter Iran market for the companies unable to become active in international arena by themselves. Currently there are around 100 Turkish companies operating in Tahran, also there are 38 Turkish investments in the first and only Free Foreign Investment Zone that is located in Tabriz. Turkish companies that operate in the country totals 134, while the total investment reaches to 1.2 billion dollars. Iran has a serious advantage in industries with high energy costs for its low energy prices. There also investment opportunities in services industry especially for restaurants and shopping malls. Other prominent industries for Turkish investors are ready wear, cosmetics, automotive spare parts, chemistry, furniture, aviation, aircraft repair and maintenance. According to İstanbul Commerce Chamber data Iranian investors established 240 new companies on 2015 in İstanbul. There are currently 1.075 registered companies operating with Iranian capital in İstanbul.