It’s the trillion-dollar question as economists calculate the fallout from the great cessation.

We know this: The Coronavirus will result in a hit to the U.S. economy unlike any ever seen. All we’re left to argue over is how long, and how bad. Everyone who has ventured a prediction on GDP is starting from the same Econ 101 equation: GDP = C + I + G + (X – M). The most important part of that equation is “C”: Consumption accounts for 68% of U.S. GDP. Drilling down, “services” makes up 69% of C, and the figures are dire: Goldman Sachs calculates a 90% decline in April sports and entertainment spending and 75% falls in spending on public transportation and food services, plus a 65% drop in hotel bookings. About the only sector of consumption that could rise is health care spending, which may climb 1.6%. “I,” or business investment, meanwhile, accounts for about 17% of GDP. Goldman forecasts a 35% decline in overall manufacturing activity—with the biggest hits to automobiles and parts suppliers. Which brings us to one area of the equation set to grow: “G,” for government spending. But that’s tricky. You’d think a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill would lift GDP. But technically, most of that is defined as transfer payments, which, as a rule, don’t pad G. The $16 billion to purchase vital medical gear in the CARES Act, for example, does count—though it’s a sum that’s unlikely to make much of a difference. Finally the net exports (“X”–”M”) tally will actually worsen in 2020, Goldman says. With consensus expectations for second-quarter GDP expected to be down more than 30%, we could be looking at Depression-era jobless numbers. Meaning the history majors may have as much insight as the econ majors about what’s ahead.